Likelihood of Government Run Health Insurance 11/30/2009

I'm not one to claim blogging will replace the mainstream media, but here's something TV regular fails to cover, prediction markets. I've talked before about the accuracy and problems of markets like Intrade.com, but there is a lot of evidence they are accurate. Despite all the media coverage of government health care reform, the possibility of anything actually passing is pretty small. The current chance of reform with a public option passing by June 10th this summer is 20%:


So next time you hear about the future, check the markets.

Don't Get Organized, Get Simplified 11/29/2009

Now that Thanksgiving is over I can post on a Christmas related topic. In about a month we are all going to get a lot of stuff and as someone who participates in gift exchanges, I think it is mostly a good thing. But for some reason, some people allow their stuff to burden them. The Freakonomics Blog recently linked to the Happiness Project's 11 Myths of De-Cluttering. It's mostly about how desires for organization are just excuses to keep your house cluttered. When I moved to North Carolina last year I realized how much stuff I had that I don't use regularly. Stuff is great, but we should buy things that relieve the stresses of everyday life, not add to them. Our stuff should allow us more free time to spend with people we care about, not replace the people we care about.

Bloggers Should Link to Wikipedia 11/28/2009

One of my favorite things about writing online is that I can link old ideas to news ones. That is why throughout posts you will find links to old posts. Another benefit of online writing is that I can link my ideas to others' ideas. Instead of fully explaining some economics term or historical event, I just assume you know what it is and link to it just in case. But a problem arises when deciding which site to link to. There are plenty of choices, so which do you use? I say Wikipedia. Not only is it currently accurate (old post), it is also adaptively so. Information is always changing and wikis have the ability to chance with it. It is also a reliable down the road. Nothing is more frustrating than clicking a dead link (here's a site to check if you have any). And finally, Wikipedia is concise and familiar. Quick summaries at the top with details outlined below and best of all, no ads. So if I ever want to tell you about the least famous famous American, I'll probably link Wikipedia.

Last Names and Academics 11/27/2009

I have seen this trend in my own classes; students with names near the end of the alphabet generally do worse. This reminds me of the classic correlation vs causation problem (my comments at the bottom). So here are my attempts at explaining this phenomenon:

1) Business owners with last names near the end of the alphabet are more likely to be in the back of the yellow pages (or at the end of a bookshelf), more likely to be less successful, and more likely to have less money to spend on their kids education.

2) Whether it's lining up for lunch in elementary school or handing out papers in high school, people with last names near the end of the alphabet may have a more contentious relationship with the educational system.

3) When put in alphabetical order, they may be more likely to be in the back of the class, which has a negative effect on learning.

4) Being at the end of the alphabet puts you later in class registry for college, which could decrease grades, which could decrease income, which could decrease the money spend on children's education.

5) Perhaps last names starting with X, Y and Z are harder to pronounce, which I can imagine has a negative impact on career.

I'm grasping at straws, anyone else have a better explanation?

Thankful For Health Improvements 11/26/2009

The Wall Street Journal recently 20 recent health advances, here are the highlights:

• Fewer Americans died in traffic fatalities in 2008 than in any year since 1961 (whew)
• Life expectancy in the U.S. reached an all-time high of 77.9
• Death rates dropped significantly for many leading causes of death: cancer, heart disease, stroke, hypertension, accidents, diabetes, homicides and pneumonia
• The proportion of undernourished children world-wide under five declined to 20% in 2005 from 27% in 1990.
• The U.S. divorce rate dropped by one-third from 1981 to 2008, and is at its lowest level since 1970 (though this may be because people are marrying less).

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Beware of Passion Fatigue 11/25/2009

Sacrifice is a good thing, but too much of it can hurt you. I've talked before about how all relationships are part give and part take. I've also cautioned about having too many friends that take more than they give. Humans have their limits and when we try to push past them, it can cause huge mental and emotional distress. One example are judges who hear asylum cases for potential immigrants. Everyday they hear first hand the most horrifying stories from around the world. This has resulted in some of them developing secondary post-traumatic stress syndrome. Not only does this decrease the quality of their life, it also inhibits their ability to hear refugee cases without bias. If it is true in the extreme, it is probably marginally true for the rest of us. I've trying (and often failing) at taking more responsibility for those around me, but it is good to remember I have limits.

Emptying the Bottle: Late-November '09 11/25/2009

Here is a list of the worthwhile sites I've Bookmarked recently:

• I generally support payday loans as a helpful way to get quick money, but apparently giving a clear description of the loan reduces applicants by as much as 10 percent.
• Listen to people who hate you and other great advice on taking advice.
• Ayn Rand was not a Libertarian and didn't really like them.
• When offered credit or debit at the register, choose credit.
• Way for bloggers to know what the popular links are, not sure if it's useful.
• When your plane is delayed, it might be Federal Aviation Administration's fault
• Trying to get Al Gore to debate global warming (I'm torn).
• Clear explanation of how companies take over other companies.
• I'm skeptical of "are you happy?" questionnaires, but these observations are fascinating.
• The landmark Supreme Court case that once gave government the right take away private land for private use has fallen on its face.

Talk Faster, Listen Faster 11/24/2009

One of the complaints I hear from the classes I teach is that I talk too fast. I've tried to work on it, but maybe I shouldn't:

The average person talks at a rate of about 125 – 175 words per minute, while we can listen at a rate of up to 450 words per minute

Even if that second number is half what the research says it is, we should all be talking faster.

Mister Diplomat Blog: A World Without Oprah 11/23/2009

I've recently become a contributer to the Mister Diplomat comedy blog. Here's my first post:

In 1984, Oprah Winfrey became the host of a morning talk show that in less than a year became so popular that it was renamed The Oprah Winfrey Show. That means I have never lived in a world without Oprah on TV, but this is about to change. Last Friday Oprah announced that she will be ending the show next season. From a ridiculous interview with Tom Cruise to pulling a Radio Flyer wagon full of 67 pounds of fat that she lost, who knew a woman with misspelled Bible character’s name could go so far. Even worse, with Oprah not giving away cars, boosting book sales or starting new television shows, we may just fall back into a recession. But don’t fret middle aged housewives, there is some silver lining to this daytime storm cloud. Perhaps Chicagoans who used to devote their time to Oprah will now leave their homes and go see some great improv. And now maybe now she’ll finally have time to take us up on our Diplomat guest offer.

Subscribe here to see me get my comedy writing feet wet.

Don't Tell My Students, Sleeping Helps You Learn 11/22/2009

This could be a guest post from most high school students I know:

There’s nothing like a good nap. It can refresh your mood—and possibly your memory. Because a new study in the journal Science shows that a quick snooze after a mental workout helps to consolidate learning. And that sounds heard during sleep can trigger associations that sharpen memory even more.

Here's the full story.