When Will Asia Regain Its Dominance?

Actually the more interesting question is how we in the West should respond to it. Luckily Hans answers that question too. I agree with him that we should embrace it. More wealth in Asia is not only good for Asia, it's good for Asia's trading parters. And to answer my original question, July 27th, 2048.

The Best Way to Learn

Here's a quote from friend and wife of a professor of economics:

It's really great to learn from someone who loves what he's talking about and loves the person he's talking to.

That's from her new blog, Lessons Learned Over Dinner. It's dedicated to learning about economics from conversations with her husband. I love the idea of a blog dedicated to learning from your spouse. Also personal experience and conversations with others, most bloggers want others to hear what their spouse has to say.

Friends Don't Let Friends Borrow Money

I recently came across the company Virgin Money. They act as the middleman between friends who want to borrow/loan money. The goal is the make the contract clear and legal to keep your friendships friendly. All money goes through Virgin and they even help navigate complicated usury laws. Although using this company is probably better than a deal on the back of a napkin, it's still a loan and the borrower can still default. This is why I think it isn't good for friends or family to loan each other money. That is what banks are for. If the professionals don't think your loved one can pay the money back, it's likely they're better off not taking it. That said, it doesn't mean we shouldn't be willing to give our money away. My wife and I have always agreed that if someone we love asks us for a reasonable loan, we would give them the money as a gift without any expectations of repayment. If we aren't comfortable giving it away, then we wouldn't. If we money comes back great. If not, we'd be glad to have helped.

Worthwhile Sentences on Suggestions

From Science Daily: "The idea that simply being more supportive is better for your marriage is a myth. Often husbands and wives think, 'If my partner really knows me and loves me, he or she will know I'm upset and will know how to help me.'"

From Tyler Cowen: "check the non-fiction Return carts, to see what other people have been reading."

From Clay Shirky: "Behavior is motivation filtered through opportunity"

From Steve Landsburg: "As any historian could tell you, no society has every pulled itself out of poverty without putting its children to work."

From Bryan Buckley (privately in response the previous article): "Just because you have good intentions doesn't mean you're doing something noble."

From Justin Wehr: "Treat your world view as nothing more than a default position -- a starting point from which to assimilate contradictory evidence."

From previous worthwhile sentences.

Effect of Plastic Surgery on Crazy Actors

I recently added the blog Neatorama to my daily reading and came across this:

Some actors appear to be underplaying their characters, consciously making them cool, without affect. If you can’t move your face, why not create an undemonstrative character? Others have taken the opposite approach: On two cable dramas starring actresses of a certain age, the heroines are brassy and expansive, with a tendency to shout and act out, yet somehow their placid foreheads are never called into play. Usually, when a person reenacts a stabbing or smashes a car with a baseball bat, some part of the face is going to crease or bunch up. Not so with these women. As though to compensate for their facial inertia, both perform with stagy vigor, attempting broad looks of surprise or disappointment, gesticulating and bellowing. If you can’t frown with your mouth, they seem intent on proving, you can try to frown with your voice.

Or maybe they'll start hiring the actors who naturally look young, like um, me. So if this surgery won't help them act, who would be so crazy and vain as to get the work done? Only celebrities are that crazy:

People always ask me: why are movie stars so crazy? There are a number of reasons: emotional people are attracted to the arts, insecure people desire fame, money changes you, etc. But one factor I think doesn't get enough attention is how painful the process of being an aspiring actor can be. You're shown enormous and relentless amounts of disrespect, paid a pittance, and have no job security at all -- if you're lucky enough to even get jobs. After a few years, who would put up with this? I'll tell you who: crazy people -- the ones who stick around despite being constantly treated in a way no sane person with self-respect would put up with. Now this doesn't say persistence = success in acting. Sorry, the volume of insane people is too high and the number of positions for stars is too low. But many who succeed will have this quality because it's almost essential in order to survive the "tournament" of Hollywood.

If it's true for the competitive world of acting, does it also explain our representatives in Washington?

This is Your Brain on Puberty

What every high school teacher has at one point at one point thought:

Learning happens in the hippocampus, a brain region that plays a key role in acquiring memories. From a cellular perspective, learning takes place when the connections between nerve cells are strengthened. Interfere with those stronger neuronal connections, and a brain can have trouble laying down new memories. Which, apparently, is what happens in adolescence. At least in mice.

Scientists used a variety of methods to study the brains of pubescent female mice. And they discovered that a particular protein, a kind of GABA receptor, for those of you keeping score at home, crops up in the hippocampus during puberty. These receptor proteins interfere with neuron communication and thus prevent the sort of synaptic strengthening these young animals need to learn.

Perhaps we should end education at 5th grade, put teenagers to work, than give them option of getting a good education in their 20's. It would definitely show them the value of that education.

Don't Throw All the Bums Out

I've recently heard vote against all incumbents in Congress, according to the FiveThirtyEight blog, that's a bad idea:

But here's why the instinct to just throw all the bums out seems rational but is potentially counter-productive if not irrational: Even with significant turnover, the notion that members of Congress will be independent of the influence of special interests is a fantasy. In fact, just the reverse is likely to happen: In a Congress full of rookies, the interest group community will have greater influence because it has longer institutional memory and control over information. That's not just speculation: Studies of state interest group communities tend to show that they are more influential in so-called "citizen legislatures" where members serve part-time (see , and that states with term limits only tend to further strengthen interest groups.

I agree they are mostly bums, but nothing changes if they are simply replaced by more fresh-faced bums. If you want a different system, vote for a different type of candidate. Might I suggest the Libertarian Party.

Things I Hate

Inspired by Penelope Trunk's own list of things she hates, I've decided to do my own. Here are some highlights from her three lists: She hates people who won't change, people who think their problems are unique and a lack of hate. Here's my list:

1) Settling. Life's too short to be decent.

2) Related to number 1, not liking your job. Few people in America have a real limitation in job choice. You spend at least forty hours a week at work, that's a fourth of your life. Unless this job is a stepping stone to the job you really want, quit. There are even benefits to quitting before you have another job: you're more motivated to get another one.

3) Being "too busy". We all have the same twenty four hour day. You never fail to do something because you don't have the time. It's always because it's not a priority, but that's okay. Once you come to terms with this, you'll feel less guilt and more contentment.

4) Stopping progress. Whether it's wanting to keep useless jobs (think elevator operator) or fearing change completely, preventing progress is preventing improvement. Your preferences don't trump everyone else's.

5) Saying "I have a mortgage". Like I said in #3, we all have to make choices. If you chose to own (and not everyone does), be sure it is a blessing not a curse.

6) Commenting on my blog not via my blog. Although I appreciate comments from emails, Facebook, and Google Reader, it divides the community of readers. There is a reason I don't write this in a Word document, it's you (and me a little). Trust me, all bloggers get excited when someone posts a comment. I just want everyone to hear what you have to say.

7) Stopping on escalators. When you stop walking on the escalator, you are slowing down yourself and everyone behind you. If you want a break from walking, lean against wall or find a bench. There is no reason why stopping on an escalator is different from stopping in the middle of a hallway.

8) Not taking advice. People who think they have nothing to learn from others clearly have a lot to learn from others. Whether it's about politics, economics or improvisation, no one has learned everything they can. But if you read other people's blogs, you probably already knew that.

9) Not responding to messages. Technology is supposed to connect us together. That only works if people actually use it as a reliable way to communicate. If someone emails, calls, or contacts you in any way, you have a social obligation to contact them back. No excuses (see #3).

10) Relentless positivity. I try to stay optimistic on this blog (the Internet is mean enough), but sometimes you have to be negative. For example, don't be afraid to make a list of things you hate.

11) Making an amoral issue black and white. There are wide ranges of preferences in the world, not everyone wants the same things you want, Most issues are unclear, no matter how loud you shout.

12) Hating people. The main difference between my list and Penelope's is that mine are focused on actions, not people. It's okay to hate things you see. There are a lot of terrible things in this world. It's not okay to hate people. Not to discount individual responsibility completely, but we are all a result of our environment. If there is one thing I've learned from having a wife in social work, it's that dysfunctional people come from dysfunctional homes. This doesn't excuse them, but it helps us pity them.

Anything you'd put on your list that I'm missing?

Health Care Reform has Passed

It seems clear that there will be a heath care bill and I can't honestly say I care either way. I think economist Greg Mankiw says it best:

One thing I have been struck by in watching this debate is how strident it has been, among both proponents and opponents of the legislation. As a weak-willed eclectic, I can see arguments on both sides. Life is full of tradeoffs, and so most issues strike me as involving shades of grey rather than being black and white. As a result, I find it hard to envision the people I disagree with as demons.

Arthur Okun said the big tradeoff in economics is between equality and efficiency. The health reform bill offers more equality (expanded insurance, more redistribution) and less efficiency (higher marginal tax rates). Whether you think this is a good or bad choice to make, it should not be hard to see the other point of view.

I like to think of the big tradeoff as being between community and liberty. From this perspective, the health reform bill offers more community (all Americans get health insurance, regulated by a centralized authority) and less liberty (insurance mandates, higher taxes). Once again, regardless of whether you are more communitarian or libertarian, a reasonable person should be able to understand the opposite vantagepoint.

In the end, while I understood the arguments in favor of the bill, I could not support it. In part, that is because I am generally more of a libertarian than a communitarian.

Generally the elderly, poor, and sick will be better off, at least for the recent future, at the expense of the young, rich, and healthy. It could be worse, it could be better.

Give Haiti Trade, Not Aid

I've discussed the problems with foreign aid before. International aid can help (and hurt) for a while, but long term improvement needs something more foundational,


The long term solution isn't to convince the U.S. Trade Representative to drop barriers to exchange, it's to drop the U.S. Trade Representatives all together. Imagine how many lives could have been saved if Haiti had been given an open opportunity to produce, trade, and escape poverty.
Update: Trade is good for our friends and our "enemies".