Monday, January 11, 2010

Future Impact of the Great Recession

Registration for next year's classes began last week and my AP Microeconomics class, which got canceled due to budget cuts last year, was on the list and it couldn't come at a better time:
individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort, support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions. Moreover, we find that recessions have a long-lasting effect on individuals’ beliefs.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Evaluating Good Teachers

I've talked before about why I think I've already improved and why I think I'll keep improving as an educator. Teach for America has been collecting information about what good teachers have in common for 20 years and has recently released their findings. However, because the Atlantic article is an example of long winded newspapers, here are the highlights of the story:
First, great teachers tended to set big goals for their students. They were also perpetually looking for ways to improve their effectiveness. For example, when Farr called up teachers who were making remarkable gains and asked to visit their classrooms, he noticed he’d get a similar response from all of them: “They’d say, ‘You’re welcome to come, but I have to warn you—I am in the middle of just blowing up my classroom structure and changing my reading workshop because I think it’s not working as well as it could.’ When you hear that over and over, and you don’t hear that from other teachers, you start to form a hypothesis.” Great teachers, he concluded, constantly reevaluate what they are doing.

Superstar teachers had four other tendencies in common: they avidly recruited students and their families into the process; they maintained focus, ensuring that everything they did contributed to student learning; they planned exhaustively and purposefully—for the next day or the year ahead—by working backward from the desired outcome; and they worked relentlessly, refusing to surrender to the combined menaces of poverty, bureaucracy, and budgetary shortfalls.
Here's some more on the benefits of planning:
The activities come in brisk sequence, following a routine the kids know by heart, so no time is lost in transition. In Teaching as Leadership, Farr describes seeing such choreography in other high-performance classrooms. “We see routines so strong that they run virtually without any involvement from the teacher. In fact, for many highly effective teachers, the measure of a well-executed routine is that it continues in the teacher’s absence.”
But what does a good teacher look like before they start teaching?
What did predict success, interestingly, was a history of perseverance—not just an attitude, but a track record. In the interview process, Teach for America now asks applicants to talk about overcoming challenges in their lives—and ranks their perseverance based on their answers. Angela Lee Duckworth, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, and her colleagues have actually quantified the value of perseverance. In a study published in TheJournal of Positive Psychology in November 2009, they evaluated 390 Teach for America instructors before and after a year of teaching. Those who initially scored high for “grit”—defined as perseverance and a passion for long-term goals, and measured using a short multiple-choice test—were 31 percent more likely than their less gritty peers to spur academic growth in their students. Gritty people, the theory goes, work harder and stay committed to their goals longer.
That was at least a little obvious. These next ones were not:
But another trait seemed to matter even more. Teachers who scored high in “life satisfaction”—reporting that they were very content with their lives—were 43 percent more likely to perform well in the classroom than their less satisfied colleagues. These teachers “may be more adept at engaging their pupils, and their zest and enthusiasm may spread to their students,” the study suggested.

In general, though, Teach for America’s staffers have discovered that past performance—especially the kind you can measure—is the best predictor of future performance. Recruits who have achieved big, measurable goals in college tend to do so as teachers. And the two best metrics of previous success tend to be grade-point average and “leadership achievement”—a record of running something and showing tangible results. If you not only led a tutoring program but doubled its size, that’s promising.

Knowledge matters, but not in every case. In studies of high-school math teachers, majoring in the subject seems to predict better results in the classroom. And more generally, people who attended a selective college are more likely to excel as teachers (although graduating from an Ivy League school does not unto itself predict significant gains in a Teach for America classroom). Meanwhile, a master’s degree in education seems to have no impact on classroom effectiveness.

The most valuable educational credentials may be the ones that circle back to squishier traits like perseverance. Last summer, an internal Teach for America analysis found that an applicant’s college GPA alone is not as good a predictor as the GPA in the final two years of college. If an applicant starts out with mediocre grades and improves, in other words, that curve appears to be more revealing than getting straight A’s all along.
This has given me a lot to think about, which apparently even doing that is a signal I'll improve.

Friday, January 08, 2010

Emptying the Bottle: Mid-January '10 Links

Here is a list of the worthwhile sites I've Bookmarked recently:

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Love at First Sight Depends on What's in Sight


So, if you can't get a date, get less charming friends. Here are some more Logic of Life videos:

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Newspapers Should Look More Like This Post

It's often reported that newspapers are dying off and being replaced by cheaper online media. Although cost is one reason for the decline of printed news, another factor is length. As this Atlantic article describes, compared to online reading, newspaper articles are just too long. If fact, I agreed with the story so much I stopped reading it once I got the gist. Of course there is a place for longer in depth reading. The Economist, with it's medium length articles, is a good example. I could say more, but in honor of this post, I'll leave it there.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

When Giving Reduces Happiness

Back in "aught eight" I posted what I believed to be one of my most controversial beliefs. That I didn't support giving to what many consider to be worthwhile charities, the most controversial of which was cancer research. I was then convinced (read the conversation in the comments) by my loyal readers of the efficient benefits of those donations. That post was inspired by a Stand Up To Cancer celebrity campaign I saw on TV. It wasn't until recently that I figured out why that bothered me so much:
Every year, 90 percent of Americans give money to charities. Is such generosity necessarily welfare enhancing for the giver? We present a theoretical framework that distinguishes two types of motivation: individuals like to give, e.g., due to altruism or warm glow, and individuals would rather not give but dislike saying no, e.g., due to social pressure. We design a door-to-door fund-raising drive in which some households are informed about the exact time of solicitation with a flyer on their door-knobs; thus, they can seek or avoid the fund-raiser. We find that the flyer reduces the share of households opening the door by 10 to 25 percent and, if the flyer allows checking a `Do Not Disturb' box, reduces giving by 30 percent. The latter decrease is concentrated among donations smaller than $10. These findings suggest that social pressure is an important determinant of door-to-door giving. Combining data from this and a complementary field experiment, we structurally estimate the model. The estimated social pressure cost of saying no to a solicitor is $3.5 for an in-state charity and $1.4 for an out-of-state charity. Our welfare calculations suggest that our door-to-door fund-raising campaigns on average lower utility of the potential donors.
Giving may be better than receiving, but not when we're giving out of guilt.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Let China Subsidize Us

Just last month the steel industry convinced the U.S. International Trade Commission that imports that are subsidized by the Chinese government are bad for America. They claimed that China was using predatory pricing as a way to gain more buyers overseas. It may not be obvious when you read articles like this from the Wall Street Journal, but low prices are good. I'd be happy to let any foreign government subsidize my purchases. Many worry about the effect these low prices will have on the domestic steel industry, but it's better to think of this as a transition and not a loss. American has gone from stone to bronze, agrarian to industrial, and from manufacturing to higher skilled (and higher paid) service industry. This is called creative destruction, or the means in which capitalism replaces older production with newer, better production. When governments try to prevent this improvement using trade tariffs, like we just did with steel, is like "doing to ourselves in peacetime what our enemies to do us in wartime".

Economics of war in Afghanistan

Here are some numbers to know:
In October, the Congressional Research Service estimated that in 2006 (the latest available figures), it cost $390,000 a year to sustain each American trooper overseas.
Here are some more:
an Afghan soldier in a high-combat area like Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan would now make a starting salary of $240 a month, up from $180. General Caldwell said that the Taliban often paid insurgents $250 to $300 a month.
Last ones:
"For 15 to 20 years, Afghanistan will not be able to sustain a force of that nature and capability with its own resources," Karzai told a news conference.
I report you decide.

Sunday, January 03, 2010

"You See But You Do Not Observe"

In college I had the idea for an Improv Everywhere type situation to take place in a public computer lab. I would ask a stranger to watch over my stuff while I went to the bathroom, but instead of me coming back in a couple of minutes, some who looked and dressed kind of like me did. The trend could continue having the returning person become more and more different until the stranger realizes it. Sadly I never got around to it, because it would have worked:



Related: Previous post on awareness and the new Sherlock Holmes movie.

Saturday, January 02, 2010

Emptying the Bottle: Early-January '10 Links

Here is a list of the worthwhile sites I've Bookmarked recently: