Likelihood of Government Run Health Insurance

I'm not one to claim blogging will replace the mainstream media, but here's something TV regular fails to cover, prediction markets. I've talked before about the accuracy and problems of markets like Intrade.com, but there is a lot of evidence they are accurate. Despite all the media coverage of government health care reform, the possibility of anything actually passing is pretty small. The current chance of reform with a public option passing by June 10th this summer is 20%:


So next time you hear about the future, check the markets.